考虑气象-负荷双重不确定性的配电网源网荷储鲁棒优化调度
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1.国网浙江省电力有限公司杭州市钱塘区供电公司 杭州 310000; 2.天地电研(北京)科技有限公司 杭州 310000; 3.北京印刷学院印刷与包装工程学院 北京 102600; 4.中国能源研究会电力安全与应急分会 北京 100085

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TM732;TN99

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Robust optimization scheduling of source, grid, load, and storage in distribution networks considering dual uncertainties in meteorology and load
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1.Hangzhou Qiantang District Power Supply Company, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China; 2.Tiandi Dianyan (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China; 3.School of Printing and Packaging Engineering, Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication, Beijing 102600, China; 4.Power Safety and Emergency Branch of China Energy Research Association, Beijing 100085, China

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    摘要:

    配电网源网荷储调度中,气象与负荷的双重不确定性存在时序相依的复杂特征,若忽略二者间的鞅差序列关联,易导致调度决策面临保守性失配和边界面失稳风险,引发电压越限。为此,本研究提出考虑气象-负荷双重不确定性的源网荷储鲁棒优化调度方法。首先,构建气象预报误差的一阶自回归时序关联模型与负荷波动的盒式区间模型,并建立考虑双重不确定性的净负荷耦合机理,形成更逼近实际极端场景的联合不确定性模型;然后,采用可调保守度的多维盒式不确定集合刻画净负荷波动域,并以系统购电、储能老化及可中断负荷补偿总成本最小为目标,计及功率平衡、电压安全、储能荷电状态与可中断负荷等约束,构建鲁棒优化调度模型,通过列与约束生成算法分解为主问题与子问题迭代求解。最后,设计储能自适应充放电与可中断负荷柔性调节的实时协同响应框架,应对实际运行中的残余偏差。仿真结果表明,该方法在最恶劣不确定性场景下所有节点电压始终维持于0.94~1.06标幺值(p.u.)的安全区间,安全裕度保持为正,验证了该方法在提升配电网安全性方面的优越性。

    Abstract:

    In the scheduling of source network load storage in the distribution network, the dual uncertainty of meteorology and load has complex temporal dependence characteristics. If the martingale difference sequence correlation between the two is ignored, it can easily lead to conservative mismatch and interface instability risks in scheduling decisions, resulting in voltage exceeding limits. Therefore, this study proposes a robust optimization scheduling method for source network load storage considering both meteorological and load uncertainties. Firstly, a first-order autoregressive time series correlation model for meteorological forecast errors and a box interval model for load fluctuations are constructed, and a net load coupling mechanism considering dual uncertainties is established to form a joint uncertainty model that is closer to actual extreme scenarios; then, a multidimensional box shaped uncertain set with adjustable conservatism is used to characterize the fluctuation domain of net load, and the goal is to minimize the total cost of system power purchase, energy storage aging and interruptible load compensation. Taking into account constraints such as power balance, voltage safety, energy storage state of charge and interruptible load, a robust optimization scheduling model is constructed. The main problem and sub problems are iteratively solved through the column and constraint generation algorithm. Finally, design a real-time collaborative response framework for adaptive charging and discharging of energy storage and flexible adjustment of interruptible loads to address residual deviations in actual operation. The simulation results show that this method maintains the voltage of all nodes in the safe range of 0.94~1.06 per unit (p.u.) under the worst-case uncertainty scenario, and the safety margin remains positive, verifying the superiority of this method in improving the safety of the distribution network.

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王浩国,吴望冰,倪进红,杨松坤,王黎明.考虑气象-负荷双重不确定性的配电网源网荷储鲁棒优化调度[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(14):27-36

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-15
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