基于数据驱动的极端天气环境下电网弹性评估研究
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1.广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局 佛山 528010; 2.广州南方学院工学院 广州 510970

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TN712

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Research on data-driven resilience assessment of power grids under extreme weather conditions
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1.Guangdong Power Grid Company Foshan Power Supply Bureau,Foshan 528010, China; 2.School of Engineering, Nanfang College Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510970, China

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    摘要:

    随着社会经济对电力依赖程度的不断加深,极端天气灾害对电力系统稳定性的威胁日益凸显,开展电力系统弹性评估研究具有重要的现实意义。本研究旨在构建一种考虑极端天气时空特性的电力系统弹性评估体系,以应对极端天气灾害对电力系统带来的挑战。首先对极端天气进行融入时空特性的模型构建,考虑历史台风数据与所处经纬度位置实时对台风模型进行修正;其次,考虑电力系统结构、运行状态及灾害应对能力等因素,从灾前预测、灾中承受能力、灾后恢复这3个方面提出3个指标数据综合评估电力系统的弹性水平;通过过去15年实测台风数据进行随机化建模,并利用IEEE RTS-79节点系统进行算例仿真得到弹性基准值,从工程实际出发,提出了增加备用、负荷转移和提升检修效率这3种弹性提升策略并进行验证。本研究评估体系不仅揭示了电力系统在灾害应对中的薄弱环节,还为提升电力系统弹性提供了理论依据与实践指导,对保障国家能源安全及维持社会经济秩序具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    With the deepening reliance of the socio-economy on electricity, the threat posed by extreme weather events to power system stability has become increasingly prominent. Consequently, conducting research on power system resilience assessment holds significant practical value. This study aims to construct a resilience assessment framework for power systems that accounts for the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme weather. First, an extreme weather model incorporating spatio-temporal characteristics is developed, where the typhoon model is dynamically corrected based on historical typhoon data and real-time geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude). Second, considering factors such as power system topology, operational status and disaster response capabilities, three comprehensive indicators are proposed to evaluate the system′s resilience level across three phases: pre-disaster prediction, disaster-time endurance and post-disaster recovery. Furthermore, stochastic modeling is performed using 15 years of measured typhoon data. The IEEE RTS-79 bus system is utilized for simulation to derive resilience baseline values. From the perspective of engineering practice, three resilience enhancement strategies—increasing standby capacity, implementing load transfer and improving maintenance efficiency—are proposed and verified. This assessment framework not only reveals vulnerabilities in power systems during disaster response but also provides theoretical basis and practical guidance for enhancing power system resilience, which is of great significance for ensuring national energy security and maintaining socio-economic order.

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王正,刘清宇,陈志刚,刘烨,黄丰.基于数据驱动的极端天气环境下电网弹性评估研究[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(14):37-48

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-15
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