基于IDOA优化ICEEMDAN-EWT与BiTCN-BiGRU的短期风电功率预测方法
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1.沈阳化工大学计算机科学与技术学院 沈阳 110142; 2.辽宁省化工过程工业智能化技术重点实验室 沈阳 110142

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TN91;TM614

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辽宁省自然科学基金(2022-MS-291)、国家外国专家项目计划(G2022006008L)、辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目(LJKMZ20220781)资助


Short-term wind power prediction method based on IDOA optimized ICEEMDAN-EWT and BiTCN-BiGRU
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1.College of Computer Science and Technology, Shenyang University of Chemical Technology, Shenyang 110142, China; 2.Liaoning Key Laboratory of Intelligent Technology for Chemical Process Industry, Shenyang 110142, China

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    摘要:

    提高风电功率预测精度对保障风电大规模并网安全及能源系统高效运行意义重大,然而,风电功率序列固有的非平稳性与强随机性给预测带来了巨大挑战,且现有模型在特征提取的深度与广度上仍有不足。为此,提出利用改进自适应噪声集合经验模态分解(improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise,ICEEMDAN)结合经验小波变换(empirical wavelet transform,EWT)分解数据,双向时序卷积网络(bidirectional time series convolution network,BiTCN)与双向门控循环单元(bidirectional gated recurrent unit,BiGRU)预测为基础的组合预测模型。使用混合探索选择策略与螺旋上升因子提高梦境优化算法(dream optimization algorithm,DOA)的全局与局部搜索性能,搜索ICEEMDAN与组合模型的最优超参数。针对ICEEMDAN中高频分量的噪声残余问题,利用EWT对噪声最重的高频分量进行二次分解去噪。随后,将处理后的各分量输入BiTCN-BiGRU构成的组合预测网络,以协同捕获序列的多尺度局部特征与长期双向依赖关系。最后,将各分量的预测结果聚合得到最终预测值。经本文数据集验证,基于改进梦境优化算法(improved dream optimization algorithm,IDOA)优化的ICEEMDAN-EWT与BiTCN-BiGRU模型的平均绝对百分比误差降低至0.73,平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别降低至2.5、1.46,具有较高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is of great significance to ensure the safety of large-scale wind power integration and the efficient operation of energy systems. However, the inherent non-stationarity and strong randomness of wind power series bring great challenges to prediction, and the existing models are still insufficient in the depth and breadth of feature extraction. Therefore, this paper proposes a combined prediction model based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) combined with empirical wavelet transform (EWT) decomposition data, bidirectional time series convolution network (BiTCN) and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) prediction. The hybrid exploration selection strategy and spiral ascent factor are used to improve the global and local search performance of the dream optimization algorithm (DOA), and to search the optimal hyperparameters of ICEEMDAN and the combined model. Aiming at the noise residual problem of high-frequency components in ICEEMDAN, EWT is used to perform secondary decomposition denoising on the high-frequency components with the heaviest noise. Subsequently, the processed components are input into the combined prediction network composed of BiTCN-BiGRU to synergistically capture the multi-scale local features and long-term bidirectional dependencies of the sequence. Finally, the prediction results of each component are aggregated to obtain the final prediction value. Through the verification of the data set in this paper, the ICEEMDAN-EWT and BiTCN-BiGRU models based on improved dream optimization algorithm (IDOA) optimization are reduced to 0.73 in the average absolute percentage error, and the average absolute error and root mean square error are reduced to 2.5 and 1.46, respectively, with high prediction accuracy.

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刘硕,丁浩展,马纪颖.基于IDOA优化ICEEMDAN-EWT与BiTCN-BiGRU的短期风电功率预测方法[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(15):161-172

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-23
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