多特征融合的基于双塔Transformer模型风电功率预测方法
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江苏科技大学自动化学院 镇江 212100

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TN91;TM614

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国家自然科学基金(62133015)项目资助


Wind power prediction model based on a dual-tower transformer model with multi-feature fusion
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College of Automation, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China

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    摘要:

    为应对环境污染和能源危机,各国大力发展绿色风力发电,但受风速、风向等不可控因素影响,风力发电具有波动性和间歇性,故需对风电功率进行精准预测,保障综合能源系统安全运行。为此,本文提出多特征融合的基于双塔Transformer模型风电功率预测方法,该方法深入挖掘含气象信息的风电功率数据,全面抽取特征信息。引入时间维度注意力、经验分布和K-means聚类,构建基于时间关联和分布特征的气象模式解耦Transformer模型。同时,引入特征维度注意力、希尔伯特变换和季节趋势分解,构建基于特征关联和频域特征的季节趋势分解Transformer模型。最后,设计加权平均融合模块,融合上述两个Transformer模型预测结果,精准预测风电功率。通过与近5年的先进算法在通用公有数据集和企业专有数据集上的大量实验对比,验证了所提方法在预测综合能源系统风电功率时预测准确性和模型解释能力具有显著优势,与次优算法相比,均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)最大幅度降低了15.34%和6.04%,决定系数R2最高提升了39.33%。

    Abstract:

    In response to environmental pollution and the energy crisis, countries worldwide are actively advancing green wind power. However, owing to uncontrollable variables such as wind speed and direction, wind power generation is characterized by volatility and intermittency, necessitating accurate forecasting of wind power output to ensure the secure operation of integrated energy systems. To mitigate this challenge, this paper proposes a wind power forecasting method based on a dual-tower Transformer model, which integrates multiple features. This approach thoroughly investigates wind power data enriched with meteorological information, extracting feature information comprehensively. The method incorporates temporal attention, empirical distribution, and K-means clustering to construct a Transformer model that decouples meteorological patterns by considering temporal dependencies and distributional traits. Additionally, feature-level attention, Hilbert transform, and seasonal trend decomposition are integrated to build a Transformer model for seasonal trend decomposition that leverages feature associations and frequency-domain characteristics. Finally, a weighted average fusion module is proposed to combine the predictions of the two aforementioned Transformer models, thereby enhancing the accuracy of wind power forecasting. Extensive experimental comparisons with advanced algorithms from the past five years, conducted on both general public datasets and proprietary datasets from enterprises, reveal that the proposed method markedly outperforms existing techniques in terms of both prediction accuracy and model interpretability. In comparison with the runner-up algorithms, the proposed method reduces the mean squared error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) by up to 15.34% and 6.04%, respectively, while enhancing the coefficient of determination R2 by as much as 39.33%.

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唐俊萍,暴琳,梁勇.多特征融合的基于双塔Transformer模型风电功率预测方法[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(11):129-143

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-03
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