基于MPSR和IHBA-BiGRU-Attention的短期电力负荷预测
DOI:
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

青岛理工大学机械与汽车工程学院 青岛 266520

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TN91; TM715

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(51977112)、山东省自然科学基金(ZR2024ME210)项目资助


Short-term power load forecasting based on MPSR and IHBA-BiGRU-Attention
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520, China

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    短期电力负荷预测面临着影响因素多、负荷数据本身非线性、非平稳等问题,导致传统预测方法精度不足难以满足工程应用,为此,本文提出了一种基于MPSR和IHBA-BiGRU-Attention的组合预测模型。首先,利用Spearman相关系数优选电力负荷影响因素,与电力负荷序列组成多变量时间序列;其次,对该时间序列进行多变量相空间重构(MPSR),以此作为输入变量;采用融合Kent混沌映射、密度因子改造和小孔成像反向学习策略的改进蜜獾算法(IHBA),对双向门控循环单元(BiGRU)网络的超参数进行寻优,并引入注意力(Attention)机制对BiGRU的隐藏状态序列进行动态加权,构建基于MPSR和IHBA-BiGRU-Attention的短期电力负荷预测模型;最后,在澳大利亚和新加坡的电力负荷数据集上进行对比实验,结果表明该模型的平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.650%和1.067%,均低于其他模型,验证了其有效性;同时,在国内南方某地区实际负荷数据集上进行预测实验,平均绝对百分比误差为1.523%,优于对比模型,验证了所提模型的工程应用价值。

    Abstract:

    Short-term power load forecasting faces challenges such as multiple influencing factors, nonlinear and non-stationary load data, which make traditional prediction methods insufficient for engineering applications. To address this, this paper proposes a combined prediction model based on MPSR and IHBA-BiGRU-Attention. First, Spearman correlation coefficients are used to select power load influencing factors, forming a multivariate time series with load sequences; subsequently, multivariate phase space reconstruction (MPSR) is applied to this time series as input variables. An improved honey badger algorithm (IHBA) integrating Kent chaotic mapping, density factor modification and small-hole imaging opposite learning strategy is employed to optimize hyperparameters of the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) network, while the attention mechanism is applied to dynamically weight hidden state sequences of BiGRU, constructing a short-term power load prediction model based on MPSR and IHBA-BiGRU-Attention; finally, comparative experiments on power load datasets from Australia and Singapore showed mean absolute percentage errors of 0.650% and 1.067%, respectively, both lower than other models, validating its effectiveness. Additionally, predictive experiments on actual load datasets from a southern region in China achieved a mean absolute percentage error of 1.523%, outperforming competing models and demonstrating the engineering applicability of the proposed model.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

于春雨,高健玮,汤培泉,张健,程琪.基于MPSR和IHBA-BiGRU-Attention的短期电力负荷预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(8):11-23

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-08
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码

重要通知公告

①《电子测量技术》期刊收款账户变更公告