基于INGO_BiLSTM_SA的短期风电功率预测
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1.中北大学信息中心 太原 030051; 2.中北大学后勤管理部 太原 030051; 3.中北大学信息与通信工程学院 太原 030051

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TN91

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山西省科技成果转化引导专项(202404021301029)资助


Short-term wind power prediction based on INGO_BiLSTM_SA
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1.School of Information Center, North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China; 2.Logistics Management Department, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051,China; 3.School of Information and Communication Engineering, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051,China

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    摘要:

    为提高短期风电功率预测精度,提出了一种融合单头注意力机制(SA)的双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)和改进的北方苍鹰算法(INGO)调参的风电功率预测模型(INGO_BiLSTM_SA)。首先对风电数据进行预处理,采用Pearson相关系数法计算各因素和风电功率的相关程度,保留相关程度较高的因素,以提高模型预测精度;其次引入单头注意力机制,用于捕捉时序中的长程依赖关系,增加模型的泛化能力;最后针对BiLSTM超参数选择困难的问题,采用融合折射反向学习初始化和正余弦策略的改进的北方苍鹰算法对模型中的隐藏单元数目、最大训练周期和初始学习率3个超参数进行寻优,得到最优参数后利用INGO_BiLSTM_SA模型进行预测。通过新疆某风电站的数据进行实验验证,得到所提模型较原始的BiLSTM网络的决定系数提高了2.08%,均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了23.0%和24.8%。

    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, a BiLSTM network integrating a single-head attention mechanism(SA) and an improved northern goshawk algorithm for parameter are proposed. Firstly, wind power data is preprocessed, and the correlation degree between each factor and wind power is calculated by using the Pearson correlation coefficient method. The factors high correlation degree are retained to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Secondly, a single-headed attention mechanism is introduced to capture long-range dependencies in the sequence, which increases the generalization ability of the model. Finally, in view of the problem of difficult hyperparameter selection of BiLSTM, the improved northern goshawk algorithm which integrated refraction reverse learning initialization and the of positive cosine is used to optimize the three super parameters of the number of hidden units, the maximum training cycle and the initial learning rate in the model, and the INGO_LSTM_SA model is used to predict after obtaining the optimal parameters. Experimental verification is carried out through the data of a wind power station in Xinjiang. The coefficient of determination of the proposed model is 2.08% than that of the original BiLSTM network, and the root mean square error and the mean absolute error are reduced by 23.0% and 24.8% respectively.

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王海亮,李敏,刘亚翃,郝海霞.基于INGO_BiLSTM_SA的短期风电功率预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(7):74-82

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-20
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