基于CW-EMA分解与组合神经网络的风电功率预测
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1.内蒙古工业大学电力学院 呼和浩特 010080; 2.北京京能国际控股有限公司北方分公司 呼和浩特 010000

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TM614;TN91

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内蒙古科技计划项目(2021GG0256)资助


Wind power prediction based on CW-EMA decomposition and combined neural network
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1.The College of Electric Power, Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010080, China; 2.Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd., Northern Branch,Hohhot 010000, China

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    摘要:

    风电功率具有强波动性与随机性,给电网调度与风电并网运行带来挑战。为提升风电功率预测的精度,本文提出一种基于通道独立指数滑动平均分解(CW-EMA)与组合神经网络的超短期风电功率预测模型(CESF-Net)。该模型首先通过噪声密度聚类算法(DBSCAN)识别并剔除风速-功率关系中的离群点,并采用线性插值进行缺失值填补;其次,利用CW-EMA实现多变量序列在通道维度上的趋势与季节分解;然后,利用时间序列分段机制提高模型对局部时间结构的捕捉能力,并构建快速傅里叶变换注意力与门控循环单元的双流网络,分别对季节性特征与趋势性特征进行处理;最后,将双流网络的输出进行拼接,形成CESF-Net模型。在风电场实测数据集上的实验表明,CESF-Net模型在15 min预测任务中,MAE、RMSE、R2较常用模型分别提升18.78%、11.11%、0.26%;在60 min预测任务中,尽管各模型的预测精度均有所下降,但CESF-Net的各项指标仍分别提升了2.98%、2.74%和0.61%。

    Abstract:

    Wind power output exhibits significant volatility and randomness, posing challenges to grid scheduling and wind power integration. To enhance forecasting accuracy, this paper presents CESF-Net, an ultra-short-term wind power prediction model that combines channel-wise EMA decomposition with a hybrid neural network. First, the model employs the densitybased spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to identify and remove outliers in the wind speed-power relationship, and uses linear interpolation to impute missing values. Second, CW-EMA is applied to decompose multivariate time series into trend and seasonal components along the channel dimension. Then, a time-series segmentation mechanism is introduced to enhance the model′s ability to capture local temporal structures, and a dual-stream network based on fast fourier transform attention and gated recurrent units is constructed to separately extract seasonal and trend features. Finally, the outputs of the dual streams are concatenated to generate the prediction through CESF-Net. Experiments conducted on real wind farm datasets demonstrate that, for the 15-minute forecasting task, the CESF-Net model outperforms commonly used models by 18.78%, 11.11% and 0.26% in terms of MAE, RMSE and R2, respectively. For the 60-minute forecasting task, although the prediction accuracy of all models decreases, CESF-Net still achieves improvements of 2.98%, 2.74% and 0.61% in the respective metrics.

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王雯学,乔燕军,寇志伟,崔啸鸣,任刚.基于CW-EMA分解与组合神经网络的风电功率预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(7):92-102

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