基于多尺度特征融合的超短期风电功率预测
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1.内蒙古科技大学数智产业学院 包头 014010; 2.内蒙古科技大学自动化与电气工程学院 包头 014010; 3.包钢钢联股份有限公司轨梁轧钢厂 包头 014010

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TP183; TN919

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国家自然科学基金项目(62161041)、内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022SHZR0375)、内蒙古自治区重点研发和成果转化项目(2025SYFHH0223)资助


Ultra-short term wind power prediction based on multi-scale feature fusion
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1.School of Digital and Intelligent Industry, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010, China; 2.School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010, China; 3.Rail and Beam Rolling Mill, Baotou Steel Joint Stock Co., Ltd.,Baotou 014010, China

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    摘要:

    鉴于风电在能源结构中的重要性及其间断性带来的挑战,本文提出了一种基于异常值处理和多尺度特征融合的端到端超短期风电功率多步预测组合模型,旨在提高超短期风电功率预测的精确度与稳定性,进而为电力系统调度与运行的准确性与稳定性提供有力支撑。首先,通过RobustTSF方法处理时间序列异常,为预测模型的鲁棒性提供有力的保障,减少了异常时间序列预测和噪声标签学习之间的差异。其次,融合空间金字塔匹配映射策略、Levy飞行策略以及自适应t分布变异策略对蜣螂优化算法进行改进,显著提高了全局搜索能力和收敛效率。同时,利用多策略蜣螂优化算法优化改进的TimeMixer模型的超参数,以获得最优的模型性能。最后使用CATimeMixer模型,实现了多尺度季节特征和趋势特征的融合和预测。实验结果表明,相较于基准模型多层感知机的MAE、RMSE、MSE分别下降了49.71%、41.26%、65.50%,同时R2提高了4.49%,能够有效降低预测误差,为超短期风电功率的准确预测提供了一种新的方法和思路。

    Abstract:

    In light of the significance of wind power within the energy landscape and the challenges posed by its intermittency, this paper proposes an end-to-end, ultra-short-term wind power multi-step prediction model that integrates outlier processing and multi-scale feature fusion. The objective is to enhance the accuracy and stability of ultra-short-term wind power predictions, thereby providing robust support for the reliability of power system scheduling and operation. First, the RobustTSF method is employed to address time series anomalies, providing a strong assurance of the prediction model′s robustness and minimizing the disparity between abnormal time series prediction and noise label learning. Secondly, the integration of the spatial pyramid matching mapping strategy, Levy flight strategy, and adaptive T-distribution mutation strategy enhances the dung beetle optimization algorithm, significantly improving its global search capability and convergence efficiency. Meanwhile, the multi-strategy dung beetle optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of the enhanced TimeMixer model, resulting in optimal model performance. Finally, the CATimeMixer model is employed to achieve the fusion and prediction of multi-scale seasonal features and trend features. The experimental results indicate that the MAE, RMSE, and MSE decreased by 49.71%, 41.26%, and 65.50%, respectively, compared to the benchmark model multilayer perceptron, while the R2 value increased by 4.49%. This demonstrates a significant reduction in prediction error and offers a novel approach for the accurate prediction of ultra-short-term wind power.

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高鹭,庄庆泽,张飞,秦岭,邬锡麟.基于多尺度特征融合的超短期风电功率预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(1):166-175

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-11
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