基于时频域学习的中长期光伏功率预测
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四川轻化工大学计算机科学与工程学院 宜宾 644000

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TM615; TN06

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国家自然科学基金(51272066)企业信息化与物联网测控技术四川省高校重点实验室开放基金(2024WYJ03)、四川省智慧旅游研究基地基金(ZHYJ24-01)、四川省科技计划重点研发项目(2023YFS0371)资助


Medium- and long-term photovoltaic power prediction based on time-frequency domain learning
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School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering,Yibin 644000, China

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    摘要:

    针对现有的多变量长时间序列预测模型在光伏发电功率中长期预测中存在特征提取不足导致预测结果较差的问题,提出了一种基于频域和时域学习的多变量长时间序列预测模型FFTEMixer,该模型能准确预测光伏发电功率的同时能保持较高的运行效率。该模型首先利用快速傅里叶变换将时序数据投影至频域,通过可学习的频率滤波器选择性增强或抑制特定频率分量,以提取全局特征和变量间相关性特征,紧接着再通过一个交互式卷积模块学习局部依赖关系,进一步提高特征表达能力;然后,通过特征融合器进一步整合周期性特征,并建立特征变量与时间戳协变量的关联;最后,采用多头自注意力机制全面建模序列的长期依赖性和时间依赖性,从而实现对时序数据的全面的特征提取。实验结果表明,在两个公开光伏发电数据集上,该模型的预测性能显著优于基准模型,均方误差和平均绝对误差始终为最低值。与当前主流次优模型相比,其均方误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了12.6%和15.8%,验证了模型的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the existing multivariate long time series prediction model in the medium and long term prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power, which has the problem of poor prediction results due to insufficient feature extraction, a multivariate long time series prediction model FFTEMixer based on learning in both frequency and time domains is proposed, which is capable of accurately predicting the PV power while maintaining a high operational efficiency. The model first uses the fast Fourier transform to project time-series data into the frequency domain. It then selectively enhances or suppresses specific frequency components through learnable frequency filters to extract global features and inter-variable correlation features. Next, an interactive convolution module is used to learn local dependencies, further enhancing feature expression capabilities. Subsequently, a feature fusion module is employed to further integrate periodic features, and establishes associations between feature variables and time stamp covariates. Finally, a multi-head self-attention mechanism is employed to comprehensively model the long-term dependencies and temporal dependencies of the sequence, thereby achieving comprehensive feature extraction from time-series data. Experimental results show that on two publicly available photovoltaic power generation datasets, the model′s predictive performance significantly outperforms the baseline model, with mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) consistently achieving the lowest values. Compared to the current mainstream second-best model, its MSE and MAE are reduced by 12.6% and 15.8%, respectively, validating the model′s effectiveness.

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王文,朱文忠,成荣.基于时频域学习的中长期光伏功率预测[J].电子测量技术,2026,49(1):157-165

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-11
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